This was a pivotal hand from my third session against the same player I’ve mentioned in a few recent heads up hands I’ve posted.
He’d been 3-betting a fair bit this session, but not as much as he sometimes has. This was one of the first 4-bets I’d made this session, though he knows from our previous play that I’m capable of 4-betting more aggressively when I think the dynamic calls for it.
This is one of the first 5-bets I’ve ever seen him make. Though I imagine he’s capable 5-bet bluffing, I think his range is pretty strong here. He’s out of position, it’s a small raise, he hadn’t done it much, I hadn’t 4-bet much, etc. More to the point, I think his 5-betting range is going to consist of KK, AA, maybe AK, and then much weaker “bluff” hands like Axs or something. So I’m not expecting to see more marginal (when it comes to 5-betting) hands like TT, JJ, QJ here.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($5209.50)
BB ($5144)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A
, Q
Hero bets $60, BB raises to $240, Hero raises to $499, BB raises to $1111, Hero calls $612
Flop: ($2222) 2, Q, 2
(2 players)
BB bets $999, Hero calls $999
Turn: ($4220) 5
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($4220) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2444, BB raises to $3034 (All-In), Hero calls $590
Total pot: $10288 | Rake: $0.50
Results:
Hero had A, Q (full house, twos over Queens).
BB had K, K (full house, twos over Kings).
Outcome: BB won $10287.50
On the one hand, checking twice with these stacks and anything better than AQ is out of character for this player. So while I would have a close decision if he shoved the turn or river, I felt reasonably confident that my hand was good on the river. What I didn’t think enough about was which worse hands could be expected to call. It’s certainly not impossible that Villain is checking a better hand, so what I really have to decide is which unlikely scenario is more likely: he’s trapping a better hand, or he has a hand that can check-call. Given what I said about his pre-flop range, I think in retrospect he’s unlikely to have a hand with marginal showdown value here. He’s probably either trapping or giving up, which makes my bet bad even though I think I usually have the best hand.
By the way, the river call is complicated. I’m clearly beat, but I’m also getting like 18:1, and while it would be extremely difficult to exploit, folding AQ here would actually be pretty exploitable. So whatever, I tilt-called. Sue me.
“This is one of the first 5-bets I’ve ever seen him make.”
I don’t care what limits you are at- isn’t that automatically A-A or K-K, with an outside chance of Q-Q (treat Q’s like Aces)??
-JP
As I said, I did think his range was strong, but it’s not 100% KK+ (or QQ+). He knows it’s his first 5-bet in a while, and for some people (though not necessarily this guy), that actually makes it less likely that he has the goods.