Some of you might remember a player named Jason Strasser, who in his day was one of the very best NLHE players online, at both cash and MTT’s. He dominated the 25/50 games and won a WCOOP event before largely quitting poker to become a Wall Street analyst or something like that. Anyway, I actually saw him at the tables today, which reminded me of one of his last 2+2 posts. It was about how he was trying out bluffing in spots where people would generally say you couldn’t possibly be bluffing. After all, if they assume you can’t possibly be bluffing, they should fold anything that only beats a bluff, right? Here’s where I went with that:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($3679)
MP ($3269)
CO ($4000)
Hero (Button) ($5708)
SB ($3117.65)
BB ($2000)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 8
, 9
UTG bets $80, 2 folds, Hero calls $80, SB calls $70, 1 fold
Flop: ($260) 5
, 3, Q
(3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($260) 7
(3 players)
SB bets $160, UTG raises to $540, Hero raises to $1028, 1 fold, UTG raises to $3599 (All-In), Hero folds
Total pot: $2476 | Rake: $3
Results:
UTG didn’t show
Outcome: UTG won $2473
Well, I guess he found something worth shoving. A set of 7’s would make the most sense to me. His turn raise looks pretty strong, because SB was sort of fishy and anyway the raise is probably bigger than it would need to be if it were a bluff, but at the same time how many monster hands really make sense for UTG? I doubt he raises 64, but if he does, I’m almost certain he bets flop. I guess he can slowplay sets sometimes, but I doubt that’s standard for him even on a board this dry. So whatever- it probably isn’t a good bluff, but I had a feeling and I pulled the trigger. I do that sometimes, and I’ve won some pots you never would have expected. It’s not the worst leak in the world to have, as long as you keep it under control. I’d say that at least a third of the time that you hear a voice in your head saying, “You know, I bet he can’t stand a raise here,” you should just go ahead and do it.