Sounds crazy, right? What better hand would fold? Ah, but what about the same hand?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($3360.50)
Button ($1316)
SB ($1012.50)
BB ($2066.50)
Hero (UTG) ($2759.50)
MP ($608.40)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7
, 7
Hero bets $44, MP calls $44, 1 fold, Button calls $44, 1 fold, BB calls $34
Flop: ($190) 6, 5
, 8
(4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, Button checks
Turn: ($190) 4 (4 players)
BB bets $140, Hero calls $140, MP calls $140, 1 fold
River: ($610) 10 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2574 (All-In), 2 folds
Total pot: $610 | Rake: $3
First off, note the stack sizes here. If MP has the nuts, he probably shoves the turn, but in any event, my downside vs him is only about $400. Given that he folded river, I’m guessing he was actually on a diamond draw or something.
BB, on the other hand, is very likely to have a 7 when he bets into three people on the turn. I was thinking how gross it would be if he bet huge on the river, but when he checked, I was pretty sure he didn’t have the nuts. It’s actually a very good time to check the nuts, since MP and/or I almost certainly has a 7 and will bet it when checked to. I just didn’t think BB was good enough to do that.
He can, however, fold a 7 facing a 3x pot river shove. The best part is, even if the bluff fails and he calls with the hand I wanted him to fold, I still don’t lose anything!
Interesting hand. In his position, I don’t think I’d ever be folding a seven…but like you said, you’re pretty much on a freeroll for 1/2 the pot if you’re positive he’d bet the river with the nuts. A couple of questions about other streets though:
Why so much pre-flop? This seems like more than your standard from other hands…any particular reason? Do you have much of a strategy in general for varying pfr size? I’ve always thought that a complicated strategy of varying raise size would be too difficult to operationalize, easy to exploit if executed incorrectly, and doesn’t gain much in the way of profitability even if you execute it perfectly.
Why check the flop? I know you’re deep with a couple of players and while your hand is strong you don’t want to get in 200 bbs. But does checking really pot control that much vs. two pair or better? I’d imagine any better pp to 3-b preflop, so I don’t think you’re pot-controlling vs. 99+ very often. Were you hoping MP (the shorter stack) would bet, the two deeper players fold, and you can xrai? I sometimes do that when I want another player to kind of spend the $ to get info that I can use. But also your hand is really vulnerable (between the other three players, you’re probably up against at least 3-4 live overs) and you aren’t too likely to win a big pot if you hit your hand…either your hand is “obvious” if you make a straight, of not really that great if you make a set.
-bruechips