I’ll hopefully be publishing a full write-up after the tournament, so for the moment I’m just going to share two key hands.
In the first, blinds were 150/300. The CO, who was pretty blatant with his bet sizing, opened to 675. The Button, a young player in a Poker Stars hat who seemed good and was probably a participant or a similar forum, called. The SB folded, and I had QdTd on my BB. I squeezed to 2500. The CO folded, and the Button called. He had about 40K to start the hand, I had 45K.
The flop came 972 with one diamond. I bet 3500, and he called.
The turn was the Jd. Stacks are awkward for a check-raise, and I don’t know how often he bet-folds the turn anyway (not that it’s such a bad thing for me if it checks through). Also, I didn’t think he’d raise a second barrel very often at all. So I bet 7500, and he called.
The river was an offsuit 2. At this point the pot is about 28K, and there is just over a pot-sized bet left in the effective stacks. I really wanted to shove but couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger. We both checked, and he showed 44. If I knew he were calling the turn that wide, I think a shove is definitely correct. Absent that information, I think it’s very close, and for better or worse I didn’t feel like bluffing off my whole stack in level 3.
The second hand was at 150/300/25, towards the very end of the day. A tightish but pretty decent player opened to 750 in MP. The CO (who is also CO from the previous hand) called. I had KTo in the BB, obviously not a hand I like playing out of position, but I called getting 4.5:1.
The flop came Kh 5c 3c. I checked, the pre-flop raiser bet 1600, the CO called, and I called. I think this is close but OK. I think there’s a good chance the raiser’s range is pretty wide, as I imagine he understands continuation betting. The CO can have KQ, KJ, or a set, but I can also see him showing up flush draws and stuff like 66-TT. At this point, I’m not really looking to put any more money in the pot.
The turn is the 5h, putting out a second (though unlikely) flush draw. We check around.
The river is the Tc, giving me K’s and T’s. I lead out 5000, the pre-flop raiser folds, and the CO pretty quickly raises to 12K. This felt strong to me, but there were very few hands I could put him on. There are only two combinations of KK and TT possible, and one if not both of those probably 3-bet pre-flop. I think he bets bare trips last to act on the turn with two flush draws out there. So for value hands I think he has to have almost exactly the only 55 or one of the three 33 combos. Meanwhile, the draw missed and I’m getting 3.5:1.
Nevertheless, I was pretty sure I was going to fold. I stared him down for several minutes and got nothing. I counted out the chips to call and he seemed to flinch a little bit. I made the call, and he showed 33.
“river is the Tc, giving me K’s and T’s…. I think he bets bare trips last to act on the turn with two flush draws out there. So for value hands I think he has to have almost exactly the only 55 or one of the three 33 combos. Meanwhile, the draw missed and I’m getting 3.5:1.”
Actually, unless it was a typo, the most OBVIOUS draw got there … the club flush draw and would be consistent with CO’s line of action to flat flop and check behind turn. You are also not including other more likely combos such as K5s or 35s which also could play it like this for deception.
Too bad about the QTdd hand. If villian called your flop and turn escalating cbets with 44 with the mindset that you are bluffing with AK, then he must (and probably does) make the hero call to your river shove with a brick non-diamond deuce (as tough as it might be). So wise of you not to river bluff shove this obvious donkey. Gotta love guys who call down half their stack with a hand that can only beat a bluff and in most cases likely to face a final bullet on river for their remaining stack as played.
Thanks Steve. Actually that was a typo- the draws missed on the river. Guess it should have been Ts. I don’t know how likely K5 and 53 are, but I guess they aren’t impossible.
I’m not convinced the 44 guy played it badly. He definitely puts me on a wide range pre-flop, so I can have a lot more air than AK. Calling the turn doesn’t absolutely commit him to calling the river, especially if I am not going to pull the trigger in a spot like this. He may assume that I won’t often bluff the river and so he can call twice and fold to a river shove. He wouldn’t have been wrong…
Thanks again for the comments.