PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (8 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($7241)
CO ($5985)
Button ($925)
Hero (SB) ($15829)
BB ($12367)
UTG ($6770)
UTG+1 ($5322)
MP1 ($8295.50)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 8
, 8
3 folds, MP2 bets $100, 2 folds, Hero raises to $400, BB calls $350, MP2 calls $300
Flop: ($1200) 6
, 5, 4
(3 players)
Hero bets $789, BB raises to $2000, 1 fold, Hero folds
Total pot: $2778 | Rake: $3
Results:
BB didn’t show
Outcome: BB won $2775
I’m not sure what’s best here (obviously), but I can’t believe I’m supposed to fold this. MP2 is pretty aggro, so it’s not impossible that the BB blatted a big pair hoping to induce a squeeze, but i kinda doubt he’s showing up here with anything that really kills me, which I guess would just be a made straight. My equity against a set is nearly the same as it is against an overpair, something like 20-25%. I wonder if he’s ever raise-folding a slightly better pair, like 99 or TT?
There are a ton of “worse” hands I’d rather shove than 88, but still, I think this is ridiculously weak. I’m pretty sure my fold was not unrelated to a fear of losing $12K, and thankfully I did leave the table not too long after. The game was good, but it wasn’t that good.
Skirt or kilt? Be careful or you may run into this guy!
I think it’s a good fold. The only logical hand in the context of the preflop action which you are ahead and that can be played on the flop like that is 77 (or an unlikely 33 but that is so remote that it can be eliminated).
I really doubt anyone flats AKhh or AQhh from BB like this and risk getting squeezed if MP2 4-bets and you possibly 5-betting. So I would rule out the semi-bluff flush draw + 2 overs.
Steve,
You may be right. The thing is, I wouldn’t be shocked if he were on a pure bluff here either. Even though it’s a 3-bet pot, it’s only 8BBs to him and he’s got position on me while were 240 deep. Then again, what I said about the possibility of an MP2 squeeze probably cuts down on how wide BB calls pre-flop.
I don’t know how wide he expects me to lead into two people on a coordinated flop, but this is a pretty good flop to bluff-raise given our depth. Even if I hold AA, he’s able to make life tough for me. Though 456 would be far more threatening, since my Ax hands wouldn’t have gutshots.