A few days ago I posted a hand where we were very deep and I feared I may have overplayed a small set/full house. Once again I was deep here against a pretty good player. Were I to fire a third barrel, I’d be showing a ton of strength, so much so that he could probably to fold all worse hands. More importantly, I felt that he wouldn’t expect me to check any strong hand since I already had the betting impetus. Thus, not only can I induce bluffs, but I can also probably get him to value bet most hands that would have called the river anyway:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($864.80)
Button ($2075.80)
SB ($603)
Hero (BB) ($2065.20)
UTG ($428.70)
MP ($2007.80)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7
, 7
1 fold, MP raises to $21, 1 fold, Button calls $21, 1 fold, Hero calls $15
Flop: ($66) 10, A
, 7
(3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $44, Button calls $44, Hero raises to $199, 1 fold, Button calls $155
Turn: ($508) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $345, Button calls $345
River: ($1198) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $800, Hero calls $800
Total pot: $2798 | Rake: $3
Results:
Button had K, J (high card, Ace).
Hero had 7, 7 (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: Hero won $2795
Also important is the fact that I think my river checks are in general far too exploitable. For the most part, if I’ve bet the flop and turn but then check the river, it means I’m giving up. Thus, I’ve been on the look-out for opportunities to bet (or raise) the flop and turn then check the river when out of position with a big hand.
vwp…I like your bet sizing on both streets a lot as well. I notice that often players will check-raise too little on the flop, and then bet too much on the turn.
Speaking of balancing, when you check-raise out-of-position into a bettor who was the preflop raiser and a caller – and the mostly drawless flop is ace high – how often is that anything but a very strong hand?
I know I personally don’t mix up my play well there. Given that, I wonder what this guy is thinking calling with just a gutshot.
I assume he’s calling with a gutshot precisely because he thinks Andrew has a strong hand. That deep, he can call $150 to look for a Q on the turn, assuming he can stack Andrew when he hits. Then he turns a bigger draw, and on the river changes his read/just can’t stand checking down K-high.
If the button turns a queen, Andrew will have ten redraw outs on the river. This cuts into button’s implied odds pretty significantly.
If Andrew has two pair, say, rather than a set, then the button will likely not stack Andrew if the queen falls – again cutting down on the implied odds. In fact, given how the actual hand played out, Andrew was likely not going to get stacked holding bottom set.
I don’t think button will likely get to draw twice to his gutshot. Andrew is going to push him off his hand on the turn in most cases, I suspect.
The boat redraw does cut down on his equity, but not that much…he’s got roughly 80% equity in a monster pot, which is pretty valuable. If he can assume that Andrew doesn’t have a Q, then there are 4 queens left in the deck, out of 43 cards, so roughly 10%. So to call the 150 he needs to win around 1500 when he hits, which I think is maybe a bit optimistic, but close to right. Anyway my overall point is, I think he’d be more likely to call there thinking Andrew has a pretty good hand than thinking Andrew has nothing.
I largely agree with both you. Sprit, I think you pretty much nailed his thought process, but danger’s right that it’s not a good play. The only thing I’ll add is that he may be thinking he can turn a profit whether I’m bluffing or not. If I’m bluffing, he’s got position and may be able to showdown the best/take it away later. If not, he may make his hand and stack me. He didn’t figure on getting Fouc-owned!
Oh he may also have known that this is a good month to be chasing gut shots against me :-(.
LOL @ Fouc-owned. Yea I kinda hinted at me not thinking it was a great play by saying he was being optimistic…I don’t think it’s a great play or anything like that, but mixing it up and calling there deep isn’t a huge sin. 100 bbs deep, it would be a terrible play. 300 bbs deep, it would be a sin to fold.