This is a pretty specific situation nearly 400 BB’s deep against a phenomenal player (CardRunner’s instructor/FTP red pro Eric “P3achy_Keen” Liu
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($1945)
UTG ($1015)
UTG+1 ($4483)
MP1 ($991.45)
MP2 ($3100)
MP3 ($1609.25)
Hero (CO) ($3782.50)
Button ($1000)
SB ($2473)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 3
, 3
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $35, 1 fold, MP2 calls $35, 1 fold, Hero calls $35, 3 folds
Flop: ($120) 3
, 10, 10 (3 players)
UTG+1 bets $90, 1 fold, Hero raises to $277, UTG+1 calls $187
Turn: ($674) Q (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $470, UTG+1 calls $470
River: ($1614) A (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1111, UTG+1 raises to $3701 (All-In), Hero folds
Total pot: $3836 | Rake: $3
Results:
UTG+1 didn’t show
Outcome: UTG+1 won $3833
By the river, I’ve simply shown too much strength, on a scary board, to think that Eric is going to pay me off with a worse hand. Not to mention the fact that TT/QQ/AA are all very possible for him. Checking the turn and either calling or value betting the river might be a better line than this, given that the flush came in. On a non-club turn, I think betting is best, along with maybe bet-folding a non-club river. But with the flush getting there, it’s hard to put me on anything worse than what I have by the river.
The one upside to this is that, since I folded the river very quickly (he tanked for a while before shoving, so I had time to decide that I couldn’t call), he may have concluded that I had nothing and was just running a psychotic bluff. That in turn may have helped me stack him on this hand:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG+1 ($1810)
MP1 ($1439)
MP2 ($6505)
MP3 ($1090.20)
CO ($3129)
Button ($2052)
Hero (SB) ($2000)
BB ($1821)
UTG ($2062)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 4, 4
3 folds, MP2 raises to $35, MP3 calls $35, 2 folds, Hero calls $30, 1 fold
Flop: ($115) 3, 4
, J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $90, 1 fold, Hero raises to $290, MP2 calls $200
Turn: ($695) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $475, MP2 calls $475
River: ($1645) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $1200 (All-In), MP2 calls $1200
Total pot: $4045 | Rake: $3
Results:
Hero had 4, 4 (three of a kind, fours).
MP2 had A, J (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won $4042
Liu runs like god hitting boats on the river every third hand.
…umm…but has had a rough 2009 so far.
Would you even fold QT as well? AT?? I don’t know his game that well, but most players don’t raise QT or AT UTG+1, or at least not every time. So 33 and AT are almost the same hand. You having QT or AT eliminates some AA/QQ combos and obviously the lone TT combo, but how often is his raise on the river a total bluff?
-bruechips
Sprit,
I don’t this is ever a total bluff. You’re right about his probably not have QT/AT, but I do think he could have 33, which AT beats. Though maybe he check-shoves that on the turn and maybe he doesn’t check-shove the river with it? I dunno, it’s a good/tough question. I’d definitely be hating life if I had AT.
For what it’s worth, I posted this in HSNL an Ansky said to bet-fold 1200 on the river. That made me happy, since it’s pretty much what I did. Stealthmunk advised about the same, though in snarkier fashion.