Weeks ago, I got a comment that I promised to answer in greater depth. Well, I’ve finally gotten around to it. Here was the question:
I read with interest the blog in which you say that you use AQ as a four / five bet semi bluff.
With what hands are you getting called with?
I ask, because in analyzing how to play against Harringbots, I discovered that there are some unusual hands that do well against standard Harrington hand ranges. For example, KJs is almost as good against AQ+/77+ as AQo. The benefit of playing KJs is that opponents will automatically add KQ and AJ to your range which will presumably make the AA/KK hands even more profitable. Of course, KJs does not occur as often as AQo but playing AQo 2/3 of the time and KJs 100% of the time would give you the same semi-bluff frequency.
I think this is an interesting idea, particularly because of the deception it creates. As the commenter points out, people may assume that if you showed up with KJs you will also be shoving hands like AJ and KQ. I was frankly a little surprised when I ran the numbers and saw that the equity difference between AQo and KJs vs a range of TT+ and AK (in answer to the first question, it depends on the spot, but in general my 4-bets aren’t getting called by 77-99) was less than 1%.
That difference gets a little bigger as you strengthen Villain’s range. It’s about a 1.5% difference for a range of JJ+ and AK.
I like this suggestion and don’t have a lot to add to why it could be good. I will add a few caveats though:
1. 1-1.5% is not as trivial as it sounds. Given that you are only looking at 25-30% equity in the first place, that means AQo is actually 3-5% stronger than KJs in such spots.
2. You won’t usually be 4- or 5-betting without first 2- or 3-betting. I’m somewhat more likely to make that first raise or re-raise with AQo than with KJs.
3. 76s actually performs about 4% better than KJs against tight calling ranges. Again, though, you’re less likely to be making the initial re-raises with it.
4. The suited is what’s making the biggest difference here. If you compare AQs to KJs against a few ranges, you see differences of 4-5%, which means it’s 12-20% better. For me at least, I think the takeaway lesson is that it’s fairly important to be suited when 4- or 5- (or 6-, I suppose) bet shoving light.
Thanks for the comment, and sorry for the delay in addressing it!
It was from a while ago, but on CTS’s old blog he had some kind of similar comments regarding 4-bet shoving ace-rag suited against aggressive 3-bettors.
Regarding 67s, card removal effects are probably significant enough to warrant investigation into their impact on the profitability of getting it in with 67s vs. AQs.
Finally, you say that the equity difference is magnified by the fact that you start out with little equity, but I’d almost go the other way. The fact that you will have little equity when called means that most of the profitability of your play comes from fold equity (I’m assuming that if the play were not profitable you would not be doing it). If you are correct in judging that your opponent will fold a good % of the time, your equity when called matters less.
-bruechips
Brue,
Good points.
You're right that most of the equity of the play comes from winning the pot without showdown, and card removal will affect how often you are called. I was thinking that using PokerStove would account for card removal, since it does with regard to your equity when called, but that's an important argument for AQs > KJs > 76s.
I'm not sure that means your equity when called matters less though. For this problem, we're essentially assuming that we've already determined what our shoving frequency is going to be, and now it's a matter of choosing which hands to fill that range with. As far as that goes, we care only about the effect of card removal on call frequency and about equity when called, and a 1% boost in equity translates into a 3-4% improvement in your equity.
But if you have solved the entire game and the optimal strategy involves shoving KJs or 67s some fraction of the time, it must be that you are doing this because you are getting a fold a lot of the time. That is, the difference in EV between shoving KJs and AJs or 67s is pretty small, as compared to the difference in shoving more or less often overall. You’re right that the equity when called still matters…but if you have a limited amount of time to solve this problem and you want to come up with the optimal strategy, the errors you make in WHICH hands to shove are less important than the errors you make in HOW OFTEN to shove, provided of course that you’re not folding AA and KK or something ridiculous like that.
Agreed, and well said.