I think the river 3-bet bluff is one of the sexiest plays in poker. Precisely because it’s so hard to pull off, it’s something I rarely attempt. But today I managed a good one:
Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter
SB: $2,829.95
BB: $2,542.50
UTG: $1,143.95
Hero (MP): $2,087
CO: $2,000
BTN: $1,032
Pre-Flop: A
K dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $35, CO calls $35, 3 folds
Flop: ($85) 3 8
2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $66, CO raises to $150, Hero calls $84
Turn: ($385) 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks
River: ($385) 5
(2 Players)
Hero bets $277, CO raises to $710, Hero raises to $1,902 and is All-In, CO folds
Results: $1,805 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked A K and WON $1,802 (+$907 NET)
Let’s start with the flop. In a 100BB game, I’m happily 3-betting the flop and getting the money. But with these stacks, his flop raising range is different and when the money goes in I’m usually going to be facing a set, not one pair. AK-high beats most of his bluffs anyway, so I just called.
The turn puts a ton of draws on the board, so when my opponent doesn’t bet it, I ruled strong hands out of his range. I’d expect him to check two pair or better almost never on the turn. When I bet the river, it’s to represent an overpair and try to bluff him off of one pair.
Because I’d previously ruled out two pair or better on the turn, the river raise is more than a little suspicious. Could the 5 have improved his hand? I doubt he’s playing 64 like this pre-flop or on the flop, and if he is, I’d expect him to bluff the turn. 96 seems pretty unlikely for the flop raise. So I conclude that he’s almost certainly bluffing.
Frankly, calling with AK would not be bad here, even though initially I was bluffing. But I also think it’s very likely that he may be turning a pair into a bluff to get me off of the overpair I’m representing. So I decided that I’d be better off shoving to knock him off better bluffs and maybe even a 53 or something that he was raising for thin value.