A Random Call, Part Two

Eugene asked a great question about my recent post, A Random Call, which reminded me that I’d meant to post this hand as well. It happened not long after I snapped off a 2x pot river bluff with top pair, weak kicker. This was against the same opponent but on a different table:

Full Tilt Poker, $10/$20 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $4,732.50
BTN: $4,231
SB: $4,144.50
BB: $5,019.50
UTG: $2,000
MP: $7,734.50

Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $70, BTN raises to $240, 2 folds, Hero calls $170

Flop: ($510) 4 2 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $222, BTN raises to $700, Hero raises to $1,178, BTN calls $478

Turn: ($2,866) 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2,813 and is All-In, Hero calls $2,813

River: ($8,492) 6 (2 Players – 1 is All-In)

Results: $8,492 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed 9 9 (two pair, Nines and Twos) and LOST (-$4,231 NET)
BTN showed K K (two pair, Kings and Twos) and WON $8,489 (+$4,258 NET)

I chose this line to induce as many bluffs as possible, but in light of my recent call I think trying to play my hand as a bluff-catcher is a bad idea. Villain is probably not expecting me to make a big fold after he’d just shown down a big bluff, which means he’s not going to try to bluff me off an overpair. Of course I could get into the whole, “but does he know that I don’t expect him to bluff?” thing, but in this case I don’t think he knows enough about me to expect that. He’s probably just not going to bluff much in this spot, which means I ought to be playing the 99 with the intention of folding to heavy pressure.

In general, catching an opponent in a big bluff will induce one or both of the following dynamics for at least the near future:

1. Villain will stop bluffing in spots where he can only represent a narrow range or where you clearly have a relatively strong hand (ie better than top pair).

2. Villain will try to restore his ego and/or take advantage of the new table dynamic by running another big bluff.

These are not necessarily mutually exclusive, because the former only assumes he will stop bluffing in certain situations. When you appear to have a relatively weak hand, he may actually bluff with renewed vigor in order to reassert his castrated manhood.

4 thoughts on “A Random Call, Part Two”

  1. Andrew,

    I’m having a hard time understanding the 3 bet min raise that you put on the flop? If you’re trying to induce a bluff on the turn shouldn’t you just be calling his reraise and just check shoving the turn if it’s safe? I mean I guess I get it in respect to building the pot and committing him to the hand but don’t you still want to give him a chance to fold hands like 10’s, j’s or maybe (big maybe) Q’s? Also is it an obvious fold if he 4 bets you on the flop? Thanks

  3. Eugene,

    It’s tough to understate what an aggressive dynamic exists between regulars in these high stakes games. Getting him to fold anything better than TT isn’t going to happen. Remember, absent our recent dynamic, I’m thinking I can play 99 for value.

    The flop 3-bet is to induce a bluff, and I think that it will do so more effectively than calling. If I call, I am announcing that I have a pair and am probably planning on calling down. If I 3-bet, there’s still a chance that I am bluffing and he can try to re-bluff me.

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