Yesterday Was Not a Good Day to Bluff Me

Although it still ended in frustration, yesterday I was very happy, in general, with my play. I felt I was more focused than usual and making some good reads in situations where I often just give up. Here’s one tough call down from the $500 WCOOP 2nd Chance:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (9 handed) Hand History converter, Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP2 (t19911)
MP3 (t27711)
Hero (t63956)
Button (t75575)
SB (t27475)
BB (t17575)
UTG (t28546)
UTG+1 (t23578)
MP1 (t24114)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7d, 7c.
5 folds, Hero raises to t2881, Button calls t2881, 2 folds.

Flop: (t6362) Js, Jc, 8c (2 players)
Hero bets t4500, Button calls t4500.

Turn: (t15362) Tc (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t12000, Hero calls t12000.

River: (t39362) 6h (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t26000, Hero calls t26000.

Final Pot: t91362

The converter missed the ante here, so the pot is actually a little larger than it appears. The button here is a pretty decent player who probably thinks the same of me, and I expected that on a flop this dry he’d be calling me with quite a lot of hands. I also thought he’d most likely raise the flop with a flush draw, particularly think most of the hands that would give him a flush draw would also give him at least a gut shot draw or an overcard that he could expect to be an out.

So really, when he bets the turn, I think his range is like 70% air, 20% trips, 9% flush, 1% full house. His bet size is a little big also for a hand that wants to get paid off or that wants to get to showdown. In other words, I’m not expecting him to show up with a pair that has much showdown value.

The river doesn’t really change anything. I still think I’m good well over 50% of the time, which is already more often than I need to be good. The fact that I had the 7c affected my decision, but I’m not sure it should have. I guess it makes it a little easier for me to call a bluff on a club river, but how often is he bluffing with a worse club?

Now this one I’m really proud of. It’s from the $200 750K Guarantee on Full Tilt:

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold’em Tournament, 400/800 Blinds, 100 Ante, 9 Players
http://www.legopoker.com/hh

MP1: 10,872
Hero (MP2): 12,119
CO: 34,178
BTN: 28,072
SB: 19,583
BB: 50,753
UTG: 40,541
UTG+1: 31,813
UTG+2: 12,727

Pre-Flop: (2,100) Qc Ks dealt to Hero (MP2)
4 folds, Hero raises to 2,019, 3 folds, BB calls 1,219

Flop: (5,338) 5c Ts Ah (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (5,338) Ad (2 Players)
BB bets 2,800, Hero calls 2,800

River: (10,938) 4h (2 Players)
BB bets 7,200, Hero calls 7,200 and is All-In

Results: 25,338 Pot
Hero showed Qc Ks (a pair of Aces) and WON 25,338 (+13,219 NET)
BB showed 8h 7s (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-12,119 NET)

The key to this hand is that I think the BB shoves pre-flop with almost any Ace he’s going to play. My stack is short enough that he’s not going to call out of position with a hand that’s tough to play post-flop but is good for a re-steal. Once Aces are excluded from his range, this isn’t a tricky call. I’m less confident that my hand is good on the turn, but even if it’s not I usually have 10 outs. And really, most people aren’t going to bet a T here, let alone anything worse (and almost certainly JJ+ get shoved pre-flop).

Very few players are good enough to shove this river for value with anything less than trips, and as I mentioned above, I didn’t think that was likely. It helps that I had nut no pair, since I could see him bluffing with high card hands like KQ, making the call trickier with a worse K-high.

Again, the key here is the pre-flop action. Pretty much any Ace and any pair is getting shoved pre-flop by the BB, and I beat everything else with which he would take this line.