Ugh, yesterday was not a good day. I spent most of the day playing 6-8 tables of big Sunday tournaments and 5-10 NL. I wasn’t playing particularly well in either, and combined with some moderately bad luck, this led to a pretty rough day. The only redeeming point was a fairly deep run in the $200, 200K Guarantee on Ultimate Bet. I’d love to have some of your feedback on what turned out to be a critical hand.
We just knocked out player number 31, and my table was broken, so I’m new here. My 75K stack is a little above average, making me 10th out of the 30 players remaining. Blinds 1500/3000 with some ante.
Folds to me in CO-1, I raise to 8000 with Kh Js , and the BB calls.
Flop 7s 6s 2s . He checks, I check also. Basically I expected him to check-raise a very wide range here, including any pair, any good spade draw, and maybe even something like JT. That’s pretty much a lose-lose range for my hand, which though it doesn’t have a ton of showdown value, often has a lot of outs. With position, I felt like I could make better turn and river decisions than the one I’d often end up making on the flop.
Turn Jd, he bets 10,000, I call. There’s definitely a case to be made for a raise here, because worse hands can call and it would be nice to protect against better spade draws. However, my goal was to value bet non-spade rivers or induce a bluff.
River As, he quickly shoves a little over 40,000 into a pot of about 37,500. I called the turn intending to call a spade river, but the timing of the shove gave me pause. I don’t know how much it matters that I have the third nuts here, because he probably isn’t value shoving the Ts or 9s, and if he is, he is at least thinking about it first. And my flop check + turn call actually look a good deal like a spade playing for pot control, so this isn’t the best river for him to bluff. Not to mention that an unknown may be a little reluctant to bluff off his stack so close to the final table of a big Sunday tournament.
But I went with my original plan, called, and got crippled by Kc Qs. Fuuuuuuuuuuuck Sunday!
You’re probably right about a cbet on the flop being bad. It will just get you into a tough spot.
The turn is a great card, but is a tough spot because he bet a little less than half pot. 8k+8k+4.5k blinds+~2k antes=22.5k
I don’t think he pot committed himself, so you have to wonder if he made the bet with the intention of folding to a reraise?
I imagine he resteals PF with AJ, so it’s unlikely he outkicks you.
Hindsite is easy. But is reraising the turn all-in bad?
I also think your analysis of his river push is right on.