I mentioned a few days ago that I was happy with a recent trend in my river play, which is that I tend to be the aggressor. I’m much more likely to make a thin value bet or a bold bluff than a crying call or even a check to induce a bluff. Along those same lines, I sometimes like to bluff with hands that would otherwise make a crying call. This can be tough to play against, because if your flop and turn lines are not consistent with a hand that would ‘need’ to bluff, your opponent is more likely to believe you. I’d like to get better at recognizing situations where it’s profitable to bluff even though my hand has some showdown value. Here’s a perfect example of what I’m talking about:
Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com
UTG ($200.35)
MP ($274.15)
CO ($87.10)
Button ($299.75)
SB ($658.05)
Hero ($609)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 5c, Tc.
UTG calls $6, 1 fold, CO calls $6, Button calls $6, SB completes, Hero checks.
Flop: ($30) 2h, 3c, Th (5 players)
SB bets $24, Hero calls $24, UTG folds, CO folds, Button folds.
Turn: ($78) 4h (2 players)
SB bets $36, Hero calls $36.
River: ($150) 7c (2 players)
SB bets $42, Hero raises to $193, SB folds.
Final Pot: $385
Results in white below:
Hero has 5c Tc (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins $385.
In a limped pot, top pair no kicker is already not looking so good when the SB pots it. The turn puts up a third flush card but also gives me an open-ended straight draw. For half-pot, I’ll peel. Then SB bets less than 1/3 pot on the river. He could be blocking with a worse pair, but I think it’s far more likely he has a better T or maybe a bad two pair. Whatever it is, though, he’s scared, and I think I’m better off raising him off most of his range rather than making a thin call.
This next one isn’t on the river, but it’s the same idea:
Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com
Button ($212.40)
SB ($616.45)
BB ($372)
Hero ($912.40)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Th, Td.
Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, BB calls $12.
Flop: ($39) Js, 2h, 6c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $24, BB raises to $48, Hero calls $24.
Turn: ($135) Ac (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $96, BB folds.
Final Pot: $231
I usually assume the min-check-raise is a strong hand, but in this case TT is near the top of my range for betting in this situation. Plus, the board is so dry that my opponent may just be feeling me out, so I think a flop call is very justifiable. On the flop, I’m thinking cheap showdown, but then a very nice bluff card comes and my opponent checks. I could look to check it down and hope to see 99 or 76 or something, but then again maybe I have to deal with a tough river bet or just get shown a Jack after the action goes check-check. By betting, maybe I knock him off a J, maybe I fold out a hand with five outs or more, maybe I just keep him from bluffing me out on the river, but in any event it seems like good things happen.
Very nice post. I sometimes get infuriated at seemingly “illogical” river raises like the T5 one and deem my opponent a donkey, but I suppose occasionally I’m not giving my opponent credit for changing gears when he realizes his hand is more valuable as a bluff.